CBA SALES OVERVIEW & 

FULL RESEARCH REPORT

 

 

 

CBA'S RESEARCHED SALES COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES QUARTERLY REPORT Q3 2023 (2022 vs. 2023) 

 

CBA's Commercial Market Analysis (CMA)Sales Report analyzes quarterly economic and commercial real estate sales activity and trends at the market and submarket levels. We are pleased to offer this detailed analysis and report for your use and interpretation. 

 

This report compares same-month and quarterly numbers by asset class and Washington’s six largest counties from 2022 through 2023.

 

Summary Analysis & Interpretation


The market correction and slowdown for commercial property sales in Washington continued through the third quarter of 2023. After a modest uptick in sales activity from Q1 to Q2 this year, the market trended downward again in Q3. Higher interest rates and uncertainty in capital markets continue to impede institutional-grade investment transactions, with only one transaction in the quarter in excess of $100 million, a multifamily sale in Redmond. Smaller, private capital investor transactions are still being completed, but the pace is significantly off from years past. Transaction counts for 2023 are down nearly 30 percent from 2022, as the high cost of capital is still being digested by the entire marketplace. Those investors needing to sell are finding it harder to sell in a difficult market.

 

How far has the market fallen? Dollar volume of sales year to date in 2023 stands at $4.70 billion, which is 67% lower than in 2022, and 8% lower than the first three quarters of 2020, $5.13 billion, the previous low in recent history and the height of the COVID pandemic and economic shutdowns. Transaction counts year to date are nearly 30% lower than in 2022. But in comparison to 2020, counts are 19% higher in 2023 (1,124) than in 2020 (942). Overall, higher transaction counts and lower dollar volumes support the market narrative that smaller, private investors are currently driving the market. 

 

Key Metrics from Q3 2023

 

  • Second lowest quarterly dollar volume sales since Q2 2020
  • Lowest quarterly transactions since Q3 2020
  • In King County, the largest CRE market in Washington, year-to-date transaction counts are down 39.9% and sales volume is down 75.7% compared to 2022.
  • Spokane is faring the best, year to date, compared to the other five counties tracked, with transactions only down 8.4% and sales volumes down 9.6%. 
  • Office property sales are the weakest by asset class in 2023, down 80.2% in sales volume compared to 2022, while the other five asset classes are all down between 60% to 65%. 
  • In addition to higher interest rates and capital markets difficulties, the office sector has been hampered by tech company layoffs and the persisting conundrum of whether employees will return to the office in the post-COVID era.

Quarterly & Year-to-Date Sales

 

Q3 saw 346 sales and $1.54 billion in sales volume, which ranks as the third lowest quarter for each category since the pandemic low point of Q2 2020. From Q1 to Q2, there was a 9% increase in the number of sales transactions and a 12% increase in sales volume. This marked the first quarter-to-quarter increase since Q3 2021. However, that trend quickly reversed from Q2 to Q3, as the number of transactions dropped almost 15% and volume was down roughly 8%. Year to date there have been 1,124 transactions and $4.7m in volume researched. Compared to the first 3 quarters of the 2020 rock bottom, that’s a 19% increase in sales but an 8% drop in volume.

 

2023 vs 2022 Sales Velocity and Volume by Counties and Asset Classes

 

For Q3 comparisons, only Kitsap County showed a positive, with a $25m increase in sales volume. Year to date, all counties and asset classes finished in the red.

 

County

 

  • King: -41% in velocity, -71% in volume for Q3, -40% and -76% year to date.  
  • Snohomish: -29% and -66% Q3, -22% and -61% YTD. 
  • Pierce: -52% and -46% Q3, -32% and -46% YTD. 
  • Spokane: -27% and -18% Q3, -8% and -10% YTD. 
  • Kitsap: -27% and +134% Q3, -11% and -18% YTD. 
  • Thurston: -12% and -67% Q3, -16% and -25% YTD.


Asset Class

 

  • Office: -30% velocity and -50% volume for Q3, -27% and -80% YTD. 
  • Retail: -42% and -66% Q3, -32% and -61% YTD. 
  • Industrial/Flex: -24% and -76% Q3, -18% and -65% YTD. 
  • Land: -43% and -65% Q3, -26% and -64% YTD. 
  • Multifamily: -45% and -63% Q3, -43% and -64% YTD. 

DOWNLOADABLE REPORTS

 

 

CBA researches office, retail, industrial, and land sales, $250,000 or more, in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Spokane, Kitsap, and Thurston counties. Multi-family sales of $250,000+, and 5-units+, are researched in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. All the raw data provided in our reports are pulled directly from the CBAcma database.

 

For questions about the report, please contact Binh Truong, Director of Market Data and Business Development, at binh@commercialmls.com or 425-952-2727.